Point Spread Probability Winning
- Point Spread Probability Winning
- Point Spread Probability Winning Pa Lottery
- Point Spread Probability Winning Lottery
SPONSOR: If interested in college basketball, college football or WNBA picks, check out Right Angle Sports at handicapper.net or on Twitter at @RASPicks.
Format Definitions: Odds and Probabilities. There are three methods of stating odds that most bookmakers and websites support. Implied Probability is also useful when evaluating a bet or checking how likely an outcome is. Positive Figures (+): The odds state the winnings on a $100 bet. Ex: American odds of +120 would win $120 on. From great to no chance at all, what are the odds each NFL team could win Super Bowl 55? The Super Bowl is an iconic game, and it’s the desire of every team in the NFL. Each year, teams battle for 17 weeks during the regular season to have a chance at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. It’s the greatest accomplishment a football team can achieve. The point spread is the projected margin of victory set by oddsmakers for the favored team. If a bettor wagers on the favorite to “cover” the point spread, the favorite must not only emerge victorious, but must do so by more than the point spread for the bet to be a winner.
Using the handy spread-to-moneyline converter available at SBR Forum, we came up with tables for favorite and underdog win percentages based on the point spread across the NFL, college football, NBA and college basketball.
Note: You can also use these to calculate projected wins for a season based on projected — or actual — point spreads. For example, the Seahawks are favored by 5 over the Packers in the Thursday Night opener, so that’d count as 0.681 wins for Seattle and 0.319 wins for Green Bay. Do that a bunch of times and you get a rough estimate of the “Vegas projection” (or, more accurately, the CG Technologies projection) of wins for each NFL team.
NFL
| Spread | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 1 | 51.3% | 48.8% |
| 1.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 2 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 2.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 3 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 3.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 4 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 4.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 5.5 | 69.0% | 31.1% |
| 6 | 70.7% | 29.4% |
| 6.5 | 72.4% | 27.7% |
| 7 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 7.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 8 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| 8.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 9 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 9.5 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| 10 | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 10.5 | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| 11 | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| 11.5 | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| 12 | 88.5% | 11.6% |
| 12.5 | 88.7% | 11.3% |
| 13 | 89.3% | 10.7% |
| 13.5 | 90.0% | 10.0% |
| 14 | 92.4% | 7.6% |
| 14.5 | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| 15 | 95.6% | 4.4% |
| 15.5 | 96.3% | 3.7% |
| 16 | 98.1% | 1.9% |
| 16.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| 17+ | 100.0% | 0.0% |
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
| Spread | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 1 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 1.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 2 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 2.5 | 54.3% | 45.8% |
| 3 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 3.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 4 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 4.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 5.5 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 6 | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 6.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 7 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 7.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 8 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 8.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 9 | 75.1% | 25.0% |
| 9.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 10 | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 10.5 | 79.3% | 20.8% |
| 11 | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| 11.5 | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 12 | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| 12.5 | 82.6% | 17.4% |
| 13 | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| 13.5 | 83.5% | 16.5% |
| 14 | 85.1% | 14.9% |
| 14.5 | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| 15 | 87.4% | 12.6% |
| 15.5 | 88.1% | 12.0% |
| 16 | 88.6% | 11.5% |
| 16.5 | 89.1% | 11.0% |
| 17 | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| 17.5 | 93.7% | 6.3% |
| 18 | 95.0% | 5.1% |
| 18.5 | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| 19 | 97.3% | 2.7% |
| 19.5 | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| 20+ | 100.0% | 0.0% |
NBA
| Spread | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 1 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 1.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 2 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 2.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 3 | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 3.5 | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 4 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 4.5 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 5 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 5.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 6 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 6.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 7 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 7.5 | 76.3% | 23.8% |
| 8 | 78.4% | 21.7% |
| 8.5 | 80.5% | 19.6% |
| 9 | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| 9.5 | 85.2% | 14.8% |
| 10 | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| 10.5 | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 11 | 91.3% | 8.7% |
| 11.5 | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| 12 | 95.0% | 5.0% |
| 12.5 | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| 13 | 98.7% | 1.3% |
| 13.5+ | 100.0% | 0.0% |
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
| Spread | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 1 | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 1.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 2 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| 2.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 3 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 3.5 | 62.1% | 38.0% |
| 4 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 4.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| 5.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 6 | 72.0% | 28.1% |
| 6.5 | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 7 | 75.8% | 24.3% |
| 7.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 8 | 79.8% | 20.3% |
| 8.5 | 81.7% | 18.3% |
| 9 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 9.5 | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| 10 | 88.1% | 11.9% |
| 10.5 | 90.3% | 9.7% |
| 11 | 92.4% | 7.6% |
| 11.5 | 94.5% | 5.5% |
| 12 | 96.7% | 3.3% |
| 12.5 | 98.9% | 1.1% |
| 13+ | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Calculator Use
Point Spread Probability Winning
Convert stated odds to a decimal value of probability and a percentage value of winning and losing. This calculator will convert 'odds for winning' an event or 'odds against winning' an event into percentage chances of both winning and losing.
Be careful if you are using sports teams odds or betting odds. If you see that the Patriots super bowl odds are 9/2, that is most likely 'odds against' and should be entered in the calculator with 'Odds are: against winning.'
When playing a lottery or other games of chance be sure you understand the odds or probability that is reported by the game organizer. A 1 in 500 chance of winning, or probability of winning, is entered into this calculator as '1 to 500 Odds are for winning'. You may also see odds reported simply as chance of winning as 500:1. This most likely means '500 to 1 Odds are against winning' which is exactly the same as '1 to 500 Odds are for winning.'
Probability Formulas:
Point Spread Probability Winning Pa Lottery
This calculator will convert 'odds of winning' for an event into a probability percentage chance of success.
Odds, are given as (chances for success) : (chances against success) or vice versa.
If odds are stated as an A to B chance of winning then the probability of winning is given as PW = A / (A + B) while the probability of losing is given as PL = B / (A + B).
For example, you win a game if you pull an ace out of a full deck of 52 cards. Pulling any other card you lose. The chance of winning is 4 out of 52, while the chance against winning is 48 out of 52 (52-4=48). Entering A=4 and B=48 into the calculator as 4:48 odds are for winning you get
For 4 to 48 odds for winning;
Probability of:
Winning = (0.0769) or 7.6923%
Losing = (0.9231) or 92.3077%
'Odds for' winning: 1:12 (reduced from 4:48)
'Odds against' winning: 12:1 (reduced from 48:4)