Betting on Team B would win you your bet if the team wins the game, OR if it loses by less than six points. If you would like to learn more, be sure to read our article explaining point spread betting. If you are having trouble deciding who is likely to win a game, then an over/under. When betting totals, you aren’t betting on just one team. You are wagering on the combined points scored in the game. For example, if the over/under in the Green Bay-Chicago game is 42.5 and you bet on the over, you need at least 43 points scored in the game to win. Conversely, if you bet the under, and the score exceeds 42 points, you lose. Oct 15, 2020 Over/Under Bets. Although the Over/Under and Totals might be utilized interchangeably for scoring, also, there is another route to making the Over/Under wagers. The Over/Under wager can be a prop (proposition) bet where there is a bet made on a certain occurrence. The boxing match is a great example because scoring is not the same as major sports.

Much like in baseball where the traditionalists complain that the new wave of players are taking over and disrespecting the game, sports betting is slowly becoming geared to the younger generation of players. The demand for quick results and instant gratification have taken the sportsbooks by storm, and sportsbooks have replied by offering up more and more obscure bets. However, one of the simplest forms of betting has remained the same, and that is betting on the 'over/under' for a particular game or event.

For example, a sports betting site might list the Steelers vs. Ravens over/under at 39.5 (possibly in an attempt to balance out the two sides of the wager). Betting the over in this scenario is likely to improve your chances of winning. OVER UNDER BETTING In the sports betting words there are two main options betting the point spread, which was review in the previews chapter and betting the Over Under – also known as 'totals'.

How Does the 'Over/Under' Work?

If you hear the phrase 'over/under' being talked about during a sports betting discussion, it is referring to the options available when betting on the total of a specific game. In order to understand how the 'over/under' works, you must first understand what betting on totals entails.

To keep it short and sweet, linemakers set a total for the number of points they think the two teams will combine to score in a particular game. Bettors then have two betting options to choose from - the 'over' or the 'under'. Taking the 'over' means you think that both teams will combine for more than the linemakers posted total, while taking the 'under' is the exact opposite.

The concept is straightforward, but throwing in an example never hurt. Let's say you are looking at a baseball game between the Royals and Indians, and the linemakers set the total at 9.5 runs. If the teams combine for 10 or more runs, any bet on the 'over' would be graded as a winner. If there are nine or fewer runs scored, 'under' bettors would be the ones celebrating a winning bet.

Different Types of 'Over/Under' Bets

Almost every single sport available for wagering will have a posted total that you can choose to bet on. In its simplest form, bettors typically choose to wager on the 'over/under' for the entire game. This does not mean that it's the only option available.

Sportsbooks give bettors the opportunity to wager on the 'over/under' for half time totals, team totals, individual performance totals, and future bets. To keep it simple, I will use the Indians and Royals example to explain each of these options.

The five-inning 'over/under' option means you will be wagering on the half time total -- which is generally half of what the full game total is. If you are playing team totals, the Indians may have a team total of 4.5 runs, in which case you would have to choose either 'over/under'.

In terms of individual performance totals, these are mostly related to football and include some of the following; the number of yards thrown by a certain quarterback or the number of rushing yards by a specific running back. And lastly, if you decide to lay a future bet down on the 'over/under', you will likely be betting how many games a particular team will win over the course of the season.

Betting Strategies for the 'Over/Under'

Just like any betting option, you will come across a totals opportunity every once in a while, that is just screaming out at you to bet it. These are the opportunities that you need to capitalize on in order to be a successful handicapper over an extended period of time.

Betting strategies surrounding the total often time revolve around the weather in a particular matchup. In football, if it's snowing or raining profusely, the total could be affected, which is why the 'under' may be worth looking into further. Now, I'm not telling you to bet every game that has snow or rain 'under' the total. I'm telling you to do your research and understand that snow and rain effect all aspects of the game and could take away the part of the game a team has success in (think a pass-happy team playing in a snow storm - probably won't be the greatest result).

In terms of totals betting in baseball, from my experience, I find betting the 'over' in games featuring two end-of-the-rotation type pitchers. Typically, these guys aren't that good and can be hit around more so then the aces of a team. However, it is vital that you do your research before wagering blindly on a total just because two bad pitchers are starting.

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The NBA might be one of the hardest sports to turn a profit in by wagering on the totals. In sports like football, hockey, or even baseball, teams can get lucky and have runs gifted to them by turnovers, own goals, or even errors. However, in basketball, a team can only score and accumulate points themselves. If they are having an off night shooting the basketball, your 'over' bet is as good as garbage. Unless of course their opponent picks up the slack and scores around 60 percent of the total - something that very rarely happens. To put that in perspective, 60 percent of 210 is 126. The final score would be 126-84, and those type of blowouts don't happen too often. If you take an 'under' and a team finishes the game shooting around 55-60% from the floor, the chances of that game staying 'under' the number are very slim.

Which is why for the two reasons I stated above, the NBA is one of the hardest sports to place a totals bet on. However, if you still insist, here are some key statistics you should really look into before risking your hard-earned money. Also, check below on this article for expert tips from Doc’s Sports best NBA handicapping experts for betting pro basketball totals.

Pace of Play

This is probably the most important factor to consider when looking at NBA totals, regardless of if you are favoring the 'over' or 'under'. The pace of play is a tool used by handicappers to determine an approximate number of possessions a team has per game. The thought process behind this being that the more possessions a team has per game, the quicker the game and the more opportunities each team has to score. For the math wizards out there, this will make sense to you. However, for those lacking in the math category, there is a statistical formula that is used to determine a team's pace of play.

The formula is: ((Tm Poss +Opp Poss) / 2 * (Tm MP/5)).

The first part of the formula is the simple part. It takes the number of possessions team A has and adds them to the number of possessions for Team B. The second part of the equation is the total team minutes played divided by five since there are five players on the court for each team.

For example - (99 + 93 ) / 2 * (240/5) = 79.50 possessions. This means that over the course of that specific game, Team A would have had 96 possessions. As each game passes and the formula gets used, the average number of possessions a team has per game will either increase or decrease.

Over And Under Sports Betting Against

Why is this important to betting NBA totals? Well, think of it this way, the more possessions a team has, the more chances they have to score and accumulate points. The more possessions a team has, the more possessions they give their opponent as well. And vice-versa for the other side. The fewer amount of possessions a team averages per game, the fewer chances to score, thus likely playing to the 'under'.

Defensive Rating / Offensive Rating

'Defensive rating' is essentially 'points allowed' but in a more detailed and complex way. The reality of the matter is that every team goes through high points and low points throughout a grueling 82-game schedule. The highs are generally buoyed by great offensive performances and by playing shut-down defense while the low times are poor performances on both sides of the ball. The 'points allowed' category considers the entire body of work, regardless of a certain spot a team is in - think third game in four nights. The averages rise and drop with each game. Defensive rating is the next step beyond 'points allowed'.

When you hear someone talking about defensive rating, they are referring to the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. This concept correlates to betting NBA totals because if a team has a defensive rating of 110.6, that means they are giving up 110.6 points per 100 possessions. That in turn means the game should very likely go over the posted total. If a team has a defensive rating of anything between 100-103, there is a pretty good chance they are one of the best defensive teams in the league and tend to play to the 'under'.

Now, using the stats as the sole reason you place an NBA totals wager is foolish. You must take into consideration a plethora of other things including a team's offensive rating.

This is other side of the coin in terms of team ratings. Offensive ratings tell you how many points a team averages per 100 possessions. Not every team in the league averages 100 possessions per game (as indicated by the pace of play formula), so using this statistic on its own to blindly bet totals would be a foolish move.

Scheduling Quirks

And lastly, I know the title says which 'stats' to focus on when betting NBA totals, and scheduling quirks isn't exactly a statistic, but it's an important piece to the puzzle. While you may watch sports on a nightly basis and yell at your TV when a player misses a shot, it's vital to keep in mind that these professional athletes are humans too. They too can get distracted with the hoopla that comes with being a pro athlete/celebrity, and they can also get tired. They are on the road plenty of the course of an 82-game season, and when they are gearing up for their third game in four nights, or fifth road game in their fifth different city on a seven-game road trip, sometimes, they just may not be feeling 100 percent.

Think about how tired you would be if you had to give it your all for 48 minutes one night, travel overnight then gear up for another game just 18 hours later. You'd be exhausted, and you probably wouldn't have any energy in your legs to make the shots you usually knock down. I get the fact that these are professional athletes and have the world of support around them, but many of them are rhythm players, and when they aren't feeling it the shots just don't drop.

It's important to look at the schedule and see where a team has been or how they've been performing prior to the game you plan on betting.

“I always look for teams that face inflated, or public, totals on a nightly basis. A good example of this is the Golden State Warriors, who have been a very good “Under” team the last couple years (before the injuries hit this team hard). Golden State was above and beyond the best offensive team in the NBA. And they played a very fast-paced game. But they were also a team full of athletes and a very good defensive team. That might have not always shown on the scoreboard, mainly because the pace benefited both offenses, but they were good at getting stops when they needed to, and the oddsmakers would inflate the totals on a nightly basis since the general betting public would only concentrate on the “Over” in games involving the Warriors. And the numbers were so high, a slight cold shooting streak by one or both of the teams would create a situation where the final result would come in way under the posted number.” – Doc’s Sports

“I have always believed that if a team is out of the playoffs, they have a tendency to get up for the best teams in the league. It's human nature. Think about it: if you are a terrible team, wouldn’t you get up for a game against the best team in the league? And, would the best team in the league not try to overlook you, not play as hard and rest a little bit in the grind of a season? Of course. So, always keep an eye on the best team facing the worst team in the league and you can use the IC Active Underdog Theory. which is essentially the underdog shows up, is an active dog. and pushes the total over. “ – Arun Shiva

“Pace of play is always going to be one of, if not the most significant factors when it comes to totals. But motivation makes a difference too. If a team is more motivated, for whatever reason, they are going to be more likely to get out and run and push the tempo. This is especially true if a team is playing in front of its home crowd because they are more likely to use that energy and put it into their transition game.” -- Nolan Sinclair, Strike Point Sports

“Basketball players are always going to have energy on the offensive end. But when teams and players get tired, you can expect it to impact them more on the defensive end, and that should mean higher point totals.“ -- Robert Ferringo

“I look to bet ‘over’ on teams at the end of long road trips or teams that have had to play three games in four days. Tired teams are easy to expose on the defensive end because playing team defense requires focus, effort and teamwork. If one or two guys are dragging a bit on defense, it affects the whole team and they are going to get roasted.” -- Robert Ferringo

“Offensive and defensive ratings are important. But know that motivation and line value are even more important. Consider when a team loses a star player to injury. Generally, the oddsmakers and the public overreact on the total. What they forget is that teammates tend to step their effort level up when they lose a star player and that generally leads to a short-term bump in teams going ‘over’.” -- Robert Ferringo

Over And Under Sports Betting Parlay

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